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疫情4月底控制住?發源地不一定在中國?出院患者"復陽"?鐘南山最新發聲來了
來源:新華網,央視新聞,環球時報英文版網站,廣州日報,中國青年網,CGTN    日期: 2020-03-02
 

2月27日,廣州市政府新聞辦在廣州醫科大學舉行疫情防控專場新聞通氣會,國家衛健委高級別專家組組長、中國工程院院士鐘南山等專家詳細回答了社會關心的問題。對于疫情何時能控制住,疫情發源地是否在中國,出院患者"復陽"等情況,鐘南山這樣說:

 

Zhong Nanshan, head of the high-level expert group appointed by China's National Health Commission to fight the COVID-19, and other experts from Guangzhou Medical University brief the media on the latest COVID-19 prevention and control measures.

 

 

此次疫情傳染性高 1人能傳染2到3人

 

鐘南山表示,這次疫情傳染性可能比以前高。雖然沒有完整的統計,但基本判斷是大概一個人能傳染2到3個人,重癥病人傳染性會高一些,輕癥的會比較低一些。一人傳染2到3人,說明傳染非常快。

 

On average, one patient of the novel coronavirus can usually infect two to three others, which means it spreads very fast, Zhong said.  

 

 

康復后感染率低

 

對于康復患者“復陽”問題,鐘南山表示,對這個病,我們是一邊發展一邊看,我們不能下絕對的定論。但是一般來說,這些病毒的感染規律都是一樣的。只要身體出現IgG抗體,而且增加很多,一般來說這些病人不會再被感染。IgG抗體增加4倍,就可以給別的病人捐獻救治血漿了。這是微生物的規律。

 

不是說一發現有病毒殘余,就認為患者再度感染。IgG抗體是針對新冠病毒的抗體。當其體內已產生足夠量的抗體,一般就不會感染的。

 

至于腸道糞便還有病毒的殘余,要考慮是不是因為腸道比較長、還沒有被排出。現在的要害是,“復陽”后會不會傳染給別人,這還有待進一步的觀察。

 

 

Addressing the question that some patients discharged from hospital after initial recovery have tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time, Zhong said COVID-19 is a new infectious disease, the process of which is not known yet. "We can't draw an absolute conclusion at present and have to follow its development closely. But according to the laws of microorganisms, those with enough antibodies will not be infected again," Zhong said.

 

一個月內研發出新藥是不可能的

 

針對新藥的研究,鐘南山表示在十幾天、二十天甚至一個月內研發出新藥是不可能的,這需要進行持續的科學研究。

 

As for new drugs, Zhong said it is impossible to develop new drugs to treat the epidemic within only one month, as it takes continuous scientific research.

 

 

疫情不一定發源在中國?

 

鐘南山表示,對疫情的預測,我們首先考慮中國,沒考慮國外,現在國外出現了一些情況。疫情首先出現在中國,不一定是發源在中國。

 

"Though the COVID-19 was first discovered in China, it does not mean that it originated from China," said Zhong.

 

 

據《廣州日報》報道,鐘院士在會后補充,從科研角度看,“首先發現”和“發源”不能劃上等號,但我們也不能就此判斷疫情是來自國外。只有對新冠病毒進行溯源,有了結果,才可能回答這個問題。

 

國家強力干預對控制疫情起到關鍵作用

 

對病情的預測會是什么樣?鐘南山表示,柳葉刀上發表過一個權威的論述預測,它是用傳統模型以及他們著名的流行病學家預測。估計2月初,中國的病人應該達到16萬例。但是我們也根據自己的團隊,廣州醫科大學重點實驗室基礎研究團隊,在傳統模型的基礎上加上了兩個比較因素,第一個是國家的強力干預,第二個是春節后可能的回流高峰,我們也做出預測模型。但是我們投稿被退回來了,覺得我們跟他差太遠。

 

 

我們預測高峰應該是在2月中,接近2月底。到2月15日以后(數字)果然下來了。我們現在的預測值是六七萬,到現在為止全國累計是7萬8左右,我們更接近權威的預測值。

 

柳葉刀預測最少到5月底,我們的預測在4月底基本控制。因為我們有國家強力的干預,以及群防群控的意識。

 

 

At the beginning of the outbreak, a study published on Lancet, a medical journal, predicted that the number of infected cases in China would reach 160,000 by early February based on a traditional research model, and that the situation could be controlled as early as the end of May, he said. His team previously predicted the peak of the epidemic in China to arrive in mid to late February. Zhong pointed out the predictions did not take into account some critical factors, such as the powerful prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government. He said their estimate is based on the scientific model plus two strong influencing factors: the vigorous measures taken by China and the possible travel rush after the Spring Festival holiday. He said, as expected, the number of people infected has been declining. "And we are confident that it will be largely contained (in China) by the end of April." 

 

參考中國經驗,應加強國際聯防聯控

 

鐘南山表示,中國新增病例已經少于國外,國外突出的是韓國、伊朗、意大利,增加得非常快。中國的一些做法可能對他們會有一些啟發。所以我應邀準備在這個周末就向歐洲呼吸學會做一個視頻報告,向他們介紹一下中國的經驗。所以,我們需要加強國際合作,這個是人類的病,不是一個國家的病,不能只是對付這一次疫情,要有一個長遠機制。

 

"This morning I found that the number of new cases in China was less than that of abroad," said Zhong. "South Korea, Iran and Italy are facing a quick increase in number of new confirmed cases. " Zhong said he will give a video presentation to the European Respiratory Society this weekend at their invitation to introduce China's experience. "It is a disease of humans, not of a country," said Zhong. More international cooperation is needed, including setting up a long-term mechanism, Zhong said.

 

 

中國采取前所未有的措施,當時是群防群治,現在提高到聯防聯控。這個含義就不一樣,有體制的改變,也有一個監督的改變,這個聯防聯控的機制很難得。所以,在一些疫情發展得很快的、蔓延很快的國家,我建議應該參考中國的經驗,注意早發現早隔離。早隔離,不傳染給別人是很關鍵的問題。

 

Under a strict mechanism of mass prevention and control, China has seen a rapid decrease in new cases of coronavirus. The mechanism is rare, and countries with rapid spread of the virus can refer to China's approach, suggested Zhong. It's a key to ensure an early detection and quarantine of infected cases.  

 

綜合來源:新華網,央視新聞,環球時報英文版網站,廣州日報,中國青年網,CGTN


 





 
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